Commentary: Taylor Swift backing won’t guarantee Kamala Harris victory over Donald Trump

SINGAPORE: It was rumoured for months, but it still took most people by surprise. Mere minutes after the fiery debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump ended on Sep 10, mega pop star Taylor Swift announced that her vote in the Nov 5 United States presidential election was going to Harris.
Swift’s endorsement is a pleasant surprise for the Democrats after a cruel summer – and in signing off as “childless cat lady” to swipe at JD Vance’s sexist attack, she delivered a one-two punch to Republicans with the artful flair most political strategists can only dream of. But it is less clear how this will improve Harris’ election prospects.
The singer’s Instagram post to her 284 million followers accumulated more than 10 million likes within 24 hours. The official Harris account only has 18.2 million followers, and the post announcing her candidacy only received 1.4 million likes.
Likes aren’t votes, but in a presidential race widely expected to be close, even a small boost can make a huge difference.
Swift’s endorsement of Harris makes her the latest in a long line of American celebrities to dip their toes into the arena of electoral politics, especially those that see politics as a natural extension of their personal brand and public views.
Harris has already collected several such endorsements, including actor George Clooney and pop stars Charli XCX and Megan Thee Stallion. The Trump camp has been busy as well, boasting endorsements from former wrestler Hulk Hogan, Gen Z influencers like Logan Paul and entrepreneurs such as Elon Musk.
But do these improve electoral prospects? There is little evidence that celebrity endorsements can convince voters to change their vote choices. In fact, a 2015 survey in Ohio found that people were less likely to support a candidate following a celebrity endorsement.
Moreover, there is a risk that candidates may be seen as relying too much on celebrities to drive up support, such as in Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. While she gathered endorsements from Katy Perry, Beyoncé, Bruce Springsteen and more, this lineup reinforced accusations of her being out-of-touch with working class Americans. Already, Trump’s running mate Vance is trying to paint Swift as a “disconnected billionaire”.
What is clear is that a candidate cannot coast to victory by relying on external star power – they must do the hard work of winning voters over themselves.
That said, Swift is no run-of-the-mill pop star. She has a record-breaking list of accolades, including being the first artiste since 1966 to have four simultaneous titles in the top 10 and the first tour to cross the billion-dollar mark. By all measures, she is more popular than she was during the 2020 election.
She is also no stranger to political endorsements. She first endorsed Democratic candidates Phil Bredesen and Jim Cooper in the 2018 midterm congressional elections.
Swift’s support for then candidate Joe Biden in October 2020 was a culmination of this trend of being politically outspoken. That Biden went on to win the election cemented her role, at the very least, as a political lucky charm.
Biden’s team eagerly sought her endorsement this year before he dropped out of the race. Trump coveted Swift’s support as well, taking the bizarre approach of spreading fake images of her endorsing him. The singer had not addressed this until her Harris endorsement.
It is unclear how influential Swift is when it comes to shifting the political needle. On one hand, the morale boost of her endorsement is undeniable.
Nonetheless, a national poll by Suffolk University in May found that a Taylor Swift endorsement would not influence the vote choice of most respondents. The fact that Phil Bredesen lost his 2018 Senate campaign also points to the limits of her ability to influence election results.
Yet, even if she cannot change the minds of polarised voters, she could convince her young, generally liberal fans to register to vote. When Swift urged her fans to register to vote early in 2018, 65,000 people answered her call within 24 hours. About 35,000 people registered following a similar plea in 2023.
This year, she used both her Harris endorsement post and her acceptance speech at the MTV Video Music Awards to encourage all her eligible fans to vote in November. Observers are already reporting a 400 to 500 per cent increase in voter registration since her announcement, or between 9,000 to 10,000 people per hour. If she takes bolder steps, such as urging her fans to get their parents to vote for Harris, the effect might be even more pronounced.
Swift’s endorsement might not guarantee Harris’ victory, especially given how fickle youth voter turnout can be. However, in a race that is expected to be decided by less than 50,000 votes across a handful of crucial swing states, every vote counts. The possibility of a handful of motivated, liberal first-time voters is too important to just shake it off.
Kevin Chen is an Associate Research Fellow with the US Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.